How I Underwrote a $61.6M Villa Flip in Dubai’s Al Barari

I underwrote a 61.6M villa flip in Dubai.

The target is an 80M exit within 15 months...

- Buy at AED 38.0M. The ask was 40.0M.
- AED 17.0M to finish a shell-and-core 6-bed.
- Extend built area from 14,919 to 17,000 sqft.
- All-in 61.6M. Target exit: 80M.
- Net profit 16.6M. 21% IRR over 15 months.
- Exit at 4,706/sqft. Comps printed 4,826 and 4,861.

Buy an unfinished villa in Al Barari below the asking price, fit it out to the renovated-comp standard, add 2,081 sqft of permitted space, and sell it within 15 months.

To fund deals like this, I ask 4 questions:

1) What stage of risk are we in?

- Price agreed. Not transferred yet.
- Basements and lift already in.
- 13 months of building ahead.

2) What makes the location work?

- Al Barari is 60% green space.
- Corner plot backing the gardens.
- 8 renovated sales in 14 months.
- People live there. They don't flip.

3) How is the downside protected?

- No debt. No forced sale.
- Break-even: 63M. Next door got 72M.
- Basements done. Biggest cost, paid.

4) Can we control the exit?

- One villa. One buyer. One sale.
- Only 8 sales like this in 14 months.
- No rent. Nothing pays you to wait.

My main concern is that 80M is the most anyone has paid for a 6-bed here, and that was in July 2025.

Verdict:

Strong fit for UHNWIs
Strong fit for Family Offices
Medium fit for Private Credit
Weak fit for Institutions

If you allocate to real assets, let's connect 👋