How I Underwrote a $15M Hydrogen Plant in Malaysia

I underwrote a $15M hydrogen plant in Malaysia.

Land, permits and equipment locked in.

- 10MW PEM electrolyzer, Sarawak, Malaysia
- $15M raise: $10M debt + $5M equity
- Target $9/kg sale price, $3.80/kg production cost
- 1,200 tonnes of green H2 per year
- First revenue targeted Q1 2027
- Powered entirely by Sarawak hydropower

This is a new-build hydrogen plant. The land has been bought, the EPC contract has been signed, and the electrolyser is on order. But there is no buyer.

To fund deals like this, I ask 4 questions:

1) What stage of risk are we in?

- Land owned, permits well advanced
- EPC partner engaged, fixed-price scope
- Electrolyser vendor (Plug Power) engaged
- Still pre-construction, NTP not yet issued

2) What makes the location work?

- Hydropower means cheap, reliable electricity
- Singapore and local industrial buyers are nearby
- No major green H2 competitor in Sarawak yet

3) How is the downside protected?

- Debt sits senior secured (first ranking)
- Negotiations with buyers (nothing signed)
- Japan and Korea are paying $16-23/kg

4) Can we control the exit?

- Debt is fully amortising over 7-10 years
- Sculpted repayment tied to production ramp-up
- No refinance cliff once the loan is paid down

The equity exit isn't very clear at this stage. My core assumption is to build, hold and cash flow.

My honest red flag is the offtake agreements. There are no signed agreements, LOIs or binding contracts.

The plant pencils out at $9/kg, but nobody's contracted to pay $9/kg. Japan and Korea are paying $16-23/kg, but that means nothing without an LOI.

My verdict:

- Strong fit for private credit (ASEAN lenders)
- Strong fit for family offices (Pre-revenue risk)
- Weak fit for institutions without an offtake

If you allocate to real assets, let's connect 👋